US threatens sanctions on countries that don’t cut economic ties to Tehran. Can US strangle Iran’s economy without China’s cooperation?—AND MORE

CNN: The US is threatening damaging new sanctions on countries that refuse to cut economic ties with Iran — but has stopped short of actually imposing big new penalties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned that groups helping Tehran launder money face expulsion from the US financial system.

Iranian response: Finance Minister Ali Madanizadeh said Tehran is “fully prepared” to counter sanctions while top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf brushed off the US threats.

Economic pressure: Iran’s currency has dropped to a record low against the dollar, and US President Donald Trump insists Iran is “collapsing.” Even though Iranians are suffering financially, the country is no stranger to economic pain

U.S. Attempt to Strangle Iran’s Economy Depends on China’s Cooperation

“This will be tricky,” Peter Harrell, a visiting scholar at Georgetown Law School who has written extensively on the limits of economic sanctions, said on Monday.

Earlier this year, in deciding how to bring Iran to its knees, Mr. Trump “had a choice to really come down hard on the Chinese, which he didn’t want to do because of his own economic agenda with Xi, or put the naval blockade on the Iranian tankers,” Mr. Harrell noted.

“It turned out it was politically easier to put the blockade on all the Iranian tankers than to tell the Chinese ‘We will sanction your big companies’ if they continued their trade with Iran.”…

Iran Pledges to Defy Trump’s Escalating Sanctions

Analysts say Tehran could intensify the dispute militarily after the United States announced new efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy. One Iranian official vowed that “not a single drop of oil” would leave the gulf…

Iran threatens 45 tankers with fines, confiscation in Hormuz escalation

The named vessels could be fined, detained and have their cargoes confiscated, according to an X post late on Sunday from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a new body set up by Iran to manage the strait…

Pakistan’s Munir spoke to Trump ahead of Tehran visit, sources say

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Pakistan’s army ​chief Asim Munir last week ahead of Munir’s trip to Tehran on ‌Monday, according to three Pakistani sources, with one saying the main U.S. request was to use Pakistan’s influence to bring Iran back to negotiations.

…”There is a trust ⁠deficit ​on both sides,” a third Pakistani source said about ​the U.S. and Iran, adding that Munir’s aim was to mitigate the lack of mutual trust on Monday…

What are Iran’s options to escalate further in face of US economic threats?

While Western countries are beyond the range of Iran’s main munitions, the Revolutionary Guards have historically been willing to find alternative ways ⁠of attack.

On ​Monday, Britain said Iran-linked hackers had shut down a small electricity station while ​U.S. officials have said Tehran was likely behind cyber attacks on water plants in Minnesota. Iran has not commented on those allegations.

Western security services have also accused Iran ​of recruiting local people to stage attacks or attempt assassinations in the West. Iran has denied that…

U.S. Says Oil Is Pouring Through Hormuz. Trackers Can’t Find It.

The count from commercial ship trackers tells a different story, with estimates ranging from roughly 2 million to 6 million barrels a day. Industry figures on the amount of crude oil and oil products being loaded onto ships in the Persian Gulf and delivered to buyers don’t corroborate the U.S. claims.

…“What’s remarkable is how similar tanker trackers’ numbers are. You’d expect someone to have figured out a way to validate the White House numbers if there was a way,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, an oil-market research firm. “As of yet, I haven’t seen anyone do it.”

U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with the Royal Navy, cited U.S. Navy data in a report over the weekend that said the U.S. facilitated 74 transits through Hormuz from Thursday through Saturday, or around 25 transits a day on average…

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